Iran Rebuilding Missile Bases Hit by US and Israeli Strikes, Satellite Images Show

Photo: BBC Verify

Iran is rebuilding the missile bases that American and Israeli strikes spent months knocking out, and new satellite images show the work is well under way. The pictures, taken in November, show fresh digging and new buildings at two major missile sites and repairs at more than a dozen others.

The images were analysed for BBC Verify by MAIAR, a British intelligence company. They show digging and new buildings at the Garmdareh military base in Karaj, near the capital Tehran, and at the Shahroud base in the north. At least 12 other military sites, including missile complexes and airbases, show signs of repair.

The picture at each site is different, but the pattern is the same. New roofs have gone up on destroyed buildings at the Kermanshah missile base in western Iran, near the border with Iraq. Damaged buildings and debris have been cleared at the Parchin military complex east of the capital. At Parchin's Taleghan 2 facility, damaged buildings have been levelled and the aftermath of attacks on an underground bunker has been repaired and reinforced with concrete.

The most striking find is at Karaj, where the images appear to show a new portal for an underground facility. Sam Lair, a research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, has looked closely at the site. At Shahroud, the digging could be linked to missile production, said Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst who focused on Iran. Because a nearby airbase at Shahroud has been hit many times, he said, the Revolutionary Guards are probably trying to move production underground. New building and digging has also been spotted outside tunnel entrances near Qom, close to the Fordo underground uranium enrichment complex, which American and Israeli bombs have hit more than once.

It is a direct challenge to what the White House has been saying. President Trump has called the Iranian armed forces a "complete and total mess". A Pentagon spokesperson said the United States had destroyed up to 90 percent of Iran's drone, ballistic missile and naval industrial base. Iran says otherwise. It claims it still holds large missile stocks, and state television this week showed footage of dozens of missiles at the entrance to an underground facility in southern Iran.

Analysts who have studied the images say Tehran is getting ready for another round. "The purpose is to better defend itself against future attacks," said Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It also indicates a priority on rebuilding military capability rather than rehabilitating the economy." Mark Mellett, a former head of the Irish military, said underground facilities make it harder for outside observers to judge what still works. Sean O'Connor of the intelligence firm Janes said the work is unlikely to be a trick to fool foreign spies. Such a project "would be costly and may achieve little", he said.

The findings fit with what other researchers have already found. A Foreign Policy Research Institute report from October surveyed the same three big missile sites, Parchin, Khojir and Shahroud, and found the same mix of underground digging and slow repair work above ground.

The timing matters. There has been growing talk in recent weeks that the United States could resume attacks on Iran after the midterm elections. Vice-President JD Vance said on Wednesday that the war's unpopularity with voters may have cost the Republicans control of the Senate "for the next 6 years". That is the political backdrop to this story: a military rebuild on one side and a domestic argument on the other.

This is a follow-up to President Trump's warning that the United States may have to destroy what is left of Iran. Since then, President Putin has offered to help end the war, Iraq has told Washington it will not be a launch pad for attacks on Iran, and Tehran has exempted ships from four countries from its Hormuz restrictions.

Sources

• BBC: Major construction ongoing near Iran missile bases, satellite images suggest
• Foreign Policy Research Institute: Iranian Missile Production Infrastructure after Epic Fury

The next test will be whether Washington reads the rebuilding as Iran digging in for another round, or as a reason to talk before the next strike.

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