UN Warns Hormuz Shipping Crisis Is Hitting Harvests and Pushing Food Prices Higher

The disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is starting to damage harvests, threatening to cut farm yields and push food prices higher, the head of the United Nations' rural development agency has warned.

International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) President Alvaro Lario told Reuters on Thursday that the consequences of the Hormuz shipping lockdown were now becoming visible in agriculture, as interrupted fertilizer shipments and rising fuel and transport costs bite into food supply chains. Agricultural commodity prices rose 13 per cent in the third quarter, he said, with further increases expected through the rest of this year and into next.

Main News Report

• IFAD President Alvaro Lario told Reuters on Thursday that the pass-through from the locking down of the Strait of Hormuz "is now starting to be seen" in agricultural harvests, threatening lower yields and higher food prices.
• The damage is flowing through fertilizer shipments held up in the strait and higher fuel and transport costs, he said — compounded by the El Nino weather pattern and continuing disruptions to Black Sea wheat supplies.
• Lario added that existing fertilizer and fuel stocks initially cushioned the shock, but prolonged uncertainty has led to more cautious planting and reduced fertilizer use, while costlier fuel is affecting mechanised harvesting.
• Agricultural commodity prices rose 13 per cent in the third quarter, with further increases expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
• Countries reliant on imported fertilizer, fuel and food are particularly vulnerable; Lario highlighted Southeast Asia's fuel dependence and the Gulf region's reliance on food imports.

Background Context

The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and vast volumes of fertilizer raw materials pass — has been at the centre of the escalating US-Iran confrontation since February 2026. Iran has sought to tighten its grip on the waterway to pressure Washington, while the United States has pressed a naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Reuters reported that about two dozen ships have been hit in the strait since the beginning of October, and a United Nations-backed plan is being prepared to move fertilizer through the waterway. Before the conflict, Hormuz handled roughly a third of globally traded urea and nearly half of seaborne sulphur — both critical fertilizer inputs — according to the UN Under Secretary General Jorge Moreira da Silva.

Reactions and Statements

• Alvaro Lario (IFAD President): told Reuters that the consequences of the Hormuz lockdown were now starting to be seen in harvests, warning of lower yields and rising food prices.
• Official overseeing the UN fertilizer scheme: told Reuters on Wednesday that a failure by the United States and Iran to agree within weeks on the UN-backed plan for moving fertilizer through the strait could trigger a food security crisis in parts of Asia and Africa.
• The warning builds on this week's reports that Iran has struck more than 14 vessels in the strait over the past fortnight, and that agricultural prices are already climbing sharply.

Why This News Matters

For Pakistan and the wider region, the warning carries direct consequences. Pakistan is an agriculture-based economy whose farmers depend on imported fertilizer and diesel — both disrupted by the Hormuz crisis. Higher input costs and reduced fertilizer use mean thinner wheat and crop harvests at home, while rising global food prices risk feeding straight into inflation for ordinary households.

Lario also warned that the uncertainty could push small farmers away from higher-value crops that take longer to generate income and towards crops offering faster cash flow — a shift that would reshape planting decisions across vulnerable economies for seasons to come.

Future Developments

• The decisive question is whether Washington and Tehran can agree within weeks on the UN-backed fertilizer shipment plan — a failure could trigger a food security crisis in parts of Asia and Africa, according to the scheme's overseer.
• Watch for fourth-quarter commodity price data: Lario expects agricultural prices to keep climbing through the end of 2026 and into early 2027 if the shipping crisis persists.
• Pakistan's own winter planting season is approaching — further fertilizer delays or price spikes would directly hit the country's rabi crop and domestic food inflation.

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