Pakistan Warns India It Will Review Nuclear Deployment Options Over 'Irresponsible' Submarine Deterrence Shift: NCA Adviser Kidwai

ISLAMABAD: Adviser to the National Command Authority Lt Gen (retd) Khalid Kidwai warned on Tuesday that Pakistan could review and reconsider all of its deployment options to restore strategic balance in South Asia, saying India was moving towards a more prepared and potentially first-use capable nuclear posture.

Main News Report

• The warning: Speaking at the second Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference, hosted by the Strategic Vision Institute, Mr Kidwai said: "Pakistan never has and never will accept strategic imbalances to be induced in South Asia." He added: "Pakistan will review and reconsider all options for appropriate deployments in order to restore the strategic balance and strategic stability while retaining the policy of strategic ambiguity," Dawn reported.
• The allegation: Citing the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's SIPRI Yearbook 2026 and other publicly available information, Mr Kidwai and fellow NCA adviser Lt Gen (retd) Sarfraz Sattar pointed to reports that India had deployed around 12 nuclear warheads on a submarine for deterrence patrols — suggesting New Delhi had mated nuclear warheads with submarine-launched ballistic missiles and begun sea-based deterrence patrols, Dawn reported.
• Endorsing SIPRI: "I do not see any reason as to why an SIPRI report might be inaccurate or speculative," Mr Kidwai said. "This irresponsible escalatory transition towards creating asymmetry in nuclear posture will have profound destabilising effects on South Asian strategic stability."
• Questioning No-First-Use: He said India's ability to maintain a continuous at-sea deterrent further undermined the credibility of its declared No-First-Use policy and pointed to a more offensive nuclear posture. "The operational reality that emerges is that India can undertake a first strike against Pakistan at zero notice," he said.
• Full Spectrum Deterrence reminder: "India in fact will be well advised to read and re-read Pakistan's policy of Full Spectrum Deterrence and seriously absorb its wide ranging implications for strategic deterrence, strategic stability, and for India's security," Mr Kidwai said, Dawn reported.
• Advance notification concern: He also questioned the absence of advance notification for Indian submarine-launched ballistic missile tests, warning that such developments could heighten the risk of miscalculation during a crisis.

Background Context

• Who spoke: Mr Kidwai and Mr Sattar are both former heads of the Strategic Plans Division and currently serve as advisers to the National Command Authority, which oversees Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, Dawn reported.
• The 2019 precedent: Referring to the February 2019 confrontation, Mr Kidwai said India had reportedly deployed its Arihant nuclear submarine in the Indian Ocean after carrying out air strikes near Balakot in Pakistan, presumably with nuclear weapons aboard. He described the latest reported deployment as part of India's wider effort to operationalise mated nuclear weapons on submarines.
• India's modernisation drive: Mr Sattar cited India's canisterisation of land- and sea-based missiles, pursuit of multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities, short-range tactical missiles, ballistic missile defences, hypersonic weapons and autonomous platforms as further sources of concern, Dawn reported.
• The May 2025 conflict: Mr Sattar said the May 2025 fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbours showed how quickly conventional hostilities could escalate. It involved kamikaze drones, supersonic BrahMos missiles capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads, and cyber and electronic warfare — and was "much more lethal in comparison to the 2019 conflict," he said, warning the fighting risked spiralling towards nuclear escalation through accident or miscalculation.
• Combined concerns: Coupled with India's Cold Start doctrine, wider military modernisation and the absence of a bilateral arms control mechanism, these developments raised doubts about India's No-First-Use declaration and traditionally recessed deterrence posture, Mr Sattar said. "Rather, as I said, it signals a shift towards more first use capable posture."

Reactions and Statements

• Khalid Kidwai, Adviser to the NCA: "Pakistan reserves the right to undertake all appropriate measures to safeguard its national security and preserve strategic balance in the region under all circumstances," Dawn reported.
• Sarfraz Sattar, Adviser to the NCA: "The future strategic stability in South Asia is placed on a perilous and worrisome course with heightened risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation, potentially leading to unintended or accidental escalation to the nuclear level."
• No Indian response yet: No official response from New Delhi to the remarks had been reported at the time of publication.

Why This News Matters

• Rare public nuclear messaging: Public warnings from serving NCA advisers about reviewing deployment options are among the strongest signals Pakistan can send about its nuclear posture without changing policy — and they land while the region is already on edge.
• The submarine factor: If the reported deployment of mated nuclear warheads on Indian submarines is accurate, it represents a fundamental change in the region's deterrence arithmetic — from a recessed posture to a continuously deployed sea-based deterrent.
• Miscalculation risk: With no bilateral arms control mechanism, no advance notification for submarine missile tests, and a history of recent conventional clashes in 2019 and 2025, the risk of escalation through misunderstanding is real and growing.
• Regional context: The remarks come as Pakistan balances major strategic moves on multiple fronts — the Makkah defence pact moving towards ratification, the Iran-US mediation effort, and heightened Houthi threats to Gulf security affecting Pakistan's interests.

Future Developments

• Whether Pakistan makes any observable changes to its nuclear deployment posture or force disposition in the coming weeks.
• Any official response from New Delhi's Ministry of Defence or Ministry of External Affairs to the SIPRI-cited claims.
• The next SIPRI assessment and whether independent analysts corroborate the reported submarine deterrence patrols.
• Whether the issue is raised in any future bilateral or multilateral arms-control discussions between the two neighbours.
• Further statements from the Strategic Plans Division or the National Command Authority on Full Spectrum Deterrence posture.

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